WWAI Economic Intelligence Platform
DESIGN PROTOTYPE (READ-ONLY)
4-Week Observation Baseline Active (2026-10-12 → 2026-11-09)
Evidence Status (Research): [FACT] Official Series [HYPOTHESIS] OaK Structured [MODEL_CONDITIONAL] GNN/VAR [CAUSAL_IDENTIFIED] Econometric [UNTESTED] Quarantined
System Status: Checkpoints 100% Frozen | Production: Untouched
UI Data Status (Implementation): [VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT] Audited Data [ILLUSTRATIVE] Simplified / Subset [PLACEHOLDER] Schematic / Stub [DATA_UNAVAILABLE] Absent & Quarantined
Evidence Status ≠ UI Data Status
Observation Horizon
ACTIVE VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
Day 4 / 28 Days
Completion Target: 2026-11-09 (14.3% Elapsed)
Hypothesis Yield
W41 & W42 VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
1.50 hyp / edition
3 formal records from 6 analyzed claims
OaK Semantic Coverage
OaK Engine VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
83.33%
5 of 6 narrative claims mapped to OaK registry
Model Capability Gate
GATE RIGOR VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
0 PASSED (33% C | 33% U | 33% P)
Zero ungrounded empirical validation passed
Latest Published Intelligence (Volume 453, No. 9419)
2026-W42 VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT

US Productivity Capital Dividend & Real Rate Divergence

US labor productivity growth (2.7% annualized) combined with massive AI CapEx and 6.4% fiscal deficit raises neutral real rate (r* ~ 2.0%), suctioning global capital and widening duration spreads against Europe.

W42-001: CONDITIONAL W42-002: UNTESTED
Tripartite Diagnostic Monitor
AUDITED VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
1. Evidence-Unavailable Claim Rate: 16.67% (1 / 6 claims)
2. Unsupported Validation Claim Rate: 0.00% (0 / 6 claims)
3. Untestable Hypothesis Rate: 33.33% (1 / 3 hypotheses)
Tripartite metrics strictly separated; neither claim rate is conflated with hypothesis testability.

Economist Weekly Publication Archive (Read-Only Mirror)

Decoupled metadata mirror of /mnt/nas/working/economist-intelligence-platform/Economist/ (Live service untouched)
PRODUCTION FROZEN VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
AUTHORITATIVE PUBLICATION SOURCE: https://economist.wwai.app (Host: aorus, Port: 8932)
AUTHENTICATED SOURCE

This view provides read-only claim metadata reconciliation. The live publication page remains the sole authoritative release; no independent text copy is maintained or duplicated.

Claim ID Article Feature Editorial Claim Narrative Mapped OaK Concept Capability Gate Status UI Data Status
W42-C1 US Productivity Dividend High US productivity & fiscal dissaving elevate equilibrium real neutral rate (r* ~ 2.0%). DFII10 (Proxy) CONDITIONAL VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
W42-C2 US Productivity Dividend Transatlantic duration divergence drives global capital suction into USD assets. DTWEXBGS / DEXUSEU CONDITIONAL VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
W42-C3 Shadow Fleet Logistics 400+ dark tankers bypass sanctions, establishing structural floor on diesel crack spreads. UNMAPPED (Customs/BDTI) UNTESTED (Quarantined) DATA_UNAVAILABLE
W42-C4 Shadow Fleet Logistics Energy pricing bifurcation decouples refined transport fuel margins from crude benchmark. DCOILWTICO / GASREGW UNTESTED VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
W41-C1 Transmission Transition Rate hikes transmit into real housing and residential construction permit freezes. PERMIT (Building Permits) PARTIAL (Unmodeled GNN) VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
W41-C2 Transmission Transition Cumulative restrictiveness propagates into asymmetric cross-border trade flow contractions. Bilateral Trade Weights VERIFIED IN GNN 2B VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT

US News OaK — Master Variable Discovery Registry

11 Validated Candidates from Pilot 1 (SVB 2023) & Pilot 2 (Fed Tightening 2022) | Status: VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION
OaK KNOWLEDGE ROUTER VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
Variable ID Official Series Name Episode Origin Availability Tier Economic Role Model Status UI Data Status
T10YIE 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Pilot 2 (Fed 2022) Tier A (0d lag) LEADING VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
DFII10 10-Year Real TIPS Yield Pilot 2 (Fed 2022) Tier A (0d lag) COINCIDENT VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
PERMIT Building Permits for New Private Housing Pilot 2 (Fed 2022) Tier B (18d lag) LEADING VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
WLCFLL Discount Window Primary Credit Borrowing Pilot 1 (SVB 2023) Tier B (1d lag) POLICY_RESPONSE VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
BTFP Bank Term Funding Program Outstandings Pilot 1 (SVB 2023) Tier B (1d lag) POLICY_RESPONSE VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
DPSACBW027SBOG Total Commercial Bank Deposits Pilot 1 (SVB 2023) Tier B (7d lag) COINCIDENT VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF Pilot 1 (SVB 2023) Tier A (0d lag) LEADING VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
DRBLACBS SLOOS Net % Tightening C&I Loans Pilot 1 (SVB 2023) Tier C (45d lag) LAGGING VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
DCOILWTICO Crude Oil Prices: WTI Spot Pilot 2 (Fed 2022) Tier A (0d lag) LEADING VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
GASREGW US Retail Regular Gasoline Price Pilot 2 (Fed 2022) Tier A (0d lag) COINCIDENT VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
DTWEXBGS Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index Pilot 2 (Fed 2022) Tier A (1d lag) COINCIDENT VALIDATED_NO_ADOPTION VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
WWAI-GNN Stage 2B Structural Engine — Frozen Simulation Snapshots (Read-Only)
26 Countries | 650 Dyads (MMG) | Pre-computed in-sample simulation from stage2b_best.npz (SHA-256: 1ff82770...). Live simulation execution from UI is locked during the observation period.
Dynamic Bilateral Trade Network (650 Dyads)
MMG ACTIVE ILLUSTRATIVE — 5-NODE PROJECTION
USA CHN MEX KOR JPN USA → CHN (Pacific Trade) CHN → MEX (+76% Surge) USA → MEX (Direct)
Zero-leakage Multiplicative Message Gating (MMG): 650 dyads present; inactive edges transmit identically 0.0 message. (Visual mockup: Illustrative SVG diagram of primary transmission channels. Full 650-dyad WebGL interactive graph is scheduled post-observation in Phase 3.)
Shock Response Heatmap (USA Policy Rate +100 bps)
MODEL_CONDITIONAL VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT (USA/CAN)
Country Data Status ΔGDP (%) ΔInf (%) ΔUnemp ΔRate ΔTradeBal
USA (Origin) VERIFIED -0.324 +0.646 +0.080 +0.394 -0.063
CAN VERIFIED -0.004 +0.001 +0.007 +0.000 -0.036
MEX ILLUSTRATIVE SUBSET -0.012 +0.002 +0.019 +0.001 -0.088
CHN ILLUSTRATIVE SUBSET -0.041 +0.008 +0.035 +0.002 -0.104
KOR ILLUSTRATIVE SUBSET -0.018 +0.004 +0.015 +0.001 -0.042
DEU ILLUSTRATIVE SUBSET -0.009 +0.002 +0.011 +0.001 -0.031
DATA INTEGRITY NOTICE: Rows for USA & CAN are exact values from the audited canonical engine data contract (stage2_canonical_engine_data_contract.md). Rows for MEX, CHN, KOR, and DEU are illustrative subset values reflecting estimated orders of magnitude from Gate 4 test runs. Do not treat representative numbers as computed observations. Full 26-country tensor batch export is scheduled post-observation.
3-Model Benchmark Comparison (2022-Q2 Decoupling Episode)
AUDITED IN GATE 4 VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
Model Architecture Dyad Universe Message Gating In-Sample L2 Loss Phantom Leakage L2 CHN → MEX Channel UI Data Status
Static Gravity Baseline 260 Edges (Top-10) None (Static) 0.00881 0.0000 Completely Absent VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
Stage 2A (Top-10 Dynamic) 260 Edges (Top-10) None (Additive Bias) 0.01804 7.3381 Omitted by Threshold VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
Stage 2B (Canonical MMG) 650 Dyads (Full Space) MMG Gated 0.00730 0.0000 Fully Captured (+76%) VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT

Macro Network Econometric Lab (31 Variables Frozen)

7 Macro Domains | Time-Series VAR Local Projections | domain_config.py Locked
MACRO NETWORK VAR
Impulse Response Function: FEDFUNDS Shock → DGS10 Yield
UI DATA STATUS: [SCHEMATIC — NOT A COMPUTED IRF]
LOCAL PROJECTIONS SCHEMATIC
+100 bps Policy Rate Peak at Month 3 (Schematic Mockup)
SCHEMATIC DISCLAIMER: This SVG curve is an illustrative visual mockup for UI layout review and is NOT a computed IRF. Actual econometrically computed time series reside in /mnt/nas/WWAI/WWAI-MACRO/macro_network/output/irf_MONETARY_POLICY.png and phase1_summary.json. Interactive dynamic vector rendering will be implemented post-observation in Phase 3.
Candidate Variable Integration Sandbox
UI DATA STATUS: [PLACEHOLDER — DISABLED]
OFFLINE QUARANTINE PLACEHOLDER

Test candidate variables (e.g. DFII10, PERMIT, T10YIE) in an isolated econometric sandbox without altering domain_config.py.

Active Domain: MONETARY_POLICY
Current Inputs: [FEDFUNDS, DGS10, T10Y2Y, BAA10Y, MORTGAGE30US]
Candidate Proposed: DFII10 (10Y Real TIPS Yield)
Status: ON HOLD (Gate Authorization Required)

Research Verification Gates & Cryptographic Ledger

Immutable provenance tracking, SHA-256 checkpoint verification, and gate audit trail
GOVERNANCE VERIFIED
Research Artifact / Checkpoint Target Model / System Verified SHA-256 Checksum Gate Verification Status UI Data Status
stage2b_best.npz WWAI-GNN Stage 2B (MMG) 1ff8277037e413f48e29505d4ad4726ccdd9fb691edab9dbf505070615692da1 VERIFIED (Gate 4) VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
best.npz WWAI-GNN Baseline (Frozen) 5980cab34857bca7cc4c5ea57efb7b3cbaf1190f9ea85418379c1eb0619795ef FROZEN BASELINE VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
canonical_variable_discovery_registry.json US News OaK Variable Registry d3aa6d200d6dc18bc2011beffe2c438b577ce3128ed167f9532e8ffdffaa9346 CANONICAL (Pilot 1/2) VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
domain_config.py Macro Network (31 Variables) 8e45a27f620857d4529f792c3008901eb20275811c79a4087baec8fe2c4784da LOCKED (31 Vars) VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT
economist_oak_scorecard_reconciliation.json Scorecard Reconciliation b6c5df9127814a09801ec6a9e144a2b16601f78e58f001efaa593258c7075b9f RECONCILED (Oct 15) VERIFIED_SNAPSHOT